GARY'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR 2019
Let's face it this Oscar season has been a crazy shit show from the floating of a new Popular Film award to ABC trying to squeeze the show into 3 hours so it can premiere a new TV show after the ceremony meaning producers have tried and failed to lop off big parts of the show including presenting awards in the ad breaks to Kevin Hart quitting as host after homophobic tweets emerged to now not having a host to the nomination of Bohemian Rhapsody as Best Film despite it being awful and directed by a big gay sex offender...it's been an Oscar season as pained and confused as the gay characters all of those award nominated straight people were playing in most of the nominated films this year!
It's kind of shocking how many queer controversies have surrounded the Oscars this year! So many straight actors playing gay, so many straight-washed versions of gay people's life stories, homophobic, racist, creepy directors, screenwriters and their takes on queerness, a homophobic host who Ellen decreed was okay for having "learnt" from saying that if his son was gay he'd bash him over his head with his own dollhouse...it's been so icky only the presence of Bette Midler and Barbra Streisand could save it!
OH WAIT!!! Barbra and Bette are singing and presenting at the ceremony?!! Okay we're excited again, all is forgiven!
Let's not forget this is the ceremony that is giving us Lady Gaga, Olivia Coleman and Glenn Close battling for Best Actress...with or without a host this is going to be camp! It might even be a total shit show! It's a Hollywood high wire act and whilst I haven't enjoyed following the race this year I am kinda excited about just how awful the show might be!
So here's what we know about the show itself so far...
https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/oscars?fbclid=IwAR2DrlfyLr9Bsy2ldv9fgGBsH1eyaowfvDVuoxsalrnjbSWo4DAwIlgIWiU
Serena Williams is presenting an Oscar for some reason, there's loads of superhero presenting, Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper are singing Shallow, Bette Midler is singing the song from Mary Poppins Returns for Emily Blunt, there's a Queen musical tribute...it's going to be quite something!!
One of the actually exciting things this year is that the Oscar race is actually wide open in most categories and favourites have come and gone. A Star Is Born looked set to win a while ago then Green Book and now Roma is the favourite but there could have been some voting backlash against it being such a dead cert that some think Black Panther or even Bohemian Rhapsody could win? See...mental!
So here's Gary's predictions for each of the main categories...
Best Foreign Language
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
This one is between Roma and Cold War. Roma's been the fave for so long it could mean Cold War wins it but I'm still gonna stick with Roma as it's been so widely seen
Prediction: Roma
Best Song
"All the Stars" (Black Panther)
"I'll Fight" (RBG)
"The Place Where Lost Things Go" (Mary Poppins Returns)
"Shallow" (A Star Is Born)
"When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings" (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)
One of the old categories I'd put money on...this one has Lady Gaga's name on it!
Prediction: Shallow
Adapted Screenplay
A Star Is Born (Eric Roth, Will Fetters & Bradley Cooper)
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Joel Coen & Ethan Coen)
BlacKkKlansman (Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee)
If Beale Street Could Talk (Barry Jenkins)
Can You Ever Forgive Me? (Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty)
They usually give it to a film that has been nominated for Best Picture and three of these haven't meaning it's between A Star Is Born and BlackKKKlansman and I think they want to give Spike Lee an over due Oscar so that's my reasoning however I'd like to see it go to the gorgeous Barry Jenkins for Beale Street.
Prediction: BlackKKKlansman
Original Screenplay
The Favourite (Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara)
First Reformed (Paul Schrader)
Green Book (Nick Vallelonga & Brian Hayes Currie & Peter Farrelly)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
Vice (Adam McKay)
The only guarantee is that after Nick Vallelonga said 9/11 was a hoax a few months ago...they aint giving it to Green Book! This is between The Favouriteand Roma and I think they'll try and share the love around a bit between the films. The Favourite has the most nominations and I think this is the only category it'll win in.
Prediction: The Favourite
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Marina de Tavira (Roma)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Perceived wisdom is that Regina King is going to win this but I'm not too sure...she wasn't nominated for the Screen Actors Guild Award and because If Beale Street Could Talk isn't nominated for Best Picture a lot of voters might not see her performance as much as the other films. This works in the favour of The Favourite and Rachel Weisz is the stand out in this film of the two actresses nominated. Could the fact both Emma Stone and her are nominated split votes and hand the win to Regina? Hmmm...this one is the tightest category in my opinion.
Prediction: Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star Is Born)
Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Sam Rockwell (Vice)
This is between the gorgeous Mahershala and the person who's been having the BEST time ever during this Oscar campaign...first time nominee Richard E Grant. Mahershala already has an Oscar and has been seen as the favourite for a long time for Green Book and Richard E Grant has been so charming this year that I actually think this is perfect storm to stop Ali winning a second Oscar and Grant to win his first. Just a gut feeling...and also something I'd love to see! Imagine the acceptance speech!
Prediction: Richard E Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star Is Born)
Willem Dafoe (At Eternity's Gate)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
Apparently Bradley Cooper has pissed off a lot of people this season for not shaking hands and playing the Oscars game and this has handed the win to a mediocre Freddy Mercury impression. Rami is a lock for winning this award...another one I'd bet on at this stage but I'm not happy about it because it's basically a lifetime movie performance with stick on teeth in an awful film.
Prediction: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Lady Gaga (A Star Is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
As much as I want Gaga to win everyone in Hollywood wants to see Glenn Close finally win an Oscar and do an amazing speech. Olivia Coleman could snatch it though!
Prediction: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Adam McKay (Vice)
Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)
Despite previously winning for Gravity I doubt this will count against Alfonso Cuaron who has this award in the bag due to an unusual list of nominees which leaves out other perceived big hitters like Bradley Cooper and includes another Best Foreign Language Film director in Pawel Pawlikowski (the Best Directors nominee list ever to feature two directors from the Foreign Language category... Pawlikowski's Cold War is not nominated for Best Picture, however, unlike Roma). The academy likes Cuaron even if they don't like Netflix and the way Roma has been seen on some of the very smallest of screens rather than the big screen as it was meant to be seen so I think they'll give it to him despite this. Interestingly Cuaron is also frontrunner for winning Best Cinematography too as, due to the absence of his usual cinematographer, he shot and lit the film himself!
Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Best Picture
Black Panther (Kevin Feige, Producer)
BlacKkKlansman (Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele and Spike Lee, Producers)
Bohemian Rhapsody (Graham King, Producer)
The Favourite (Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday and Yorgos Lanthimos, Producers)
Roma (Gabriela Rodriguez and Alfonso Cuaron, Producers)
Green Book (Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly and Nick Vallelonga, Producers)
A Star Is Born (Bill Gerber, Bradley Cooper and Lynette Howell Taylor, Producers)
Vice (Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adam McKay and Kevin Messick, Producers)
What a crazy list! No room for Beale Street or Can You Ever Forgive Me? in the list...or any films made by women. Odd. The frontrunner is Roma but the rumour is that Black Panther or Bohemian Rhapsody could snatch it! Seriously a superhero movie or a bad Queen biopic! The way the preferential voting slips work the maths does mean that could happen! Let's not forget thatRoma is a Netflix film that has only been show in limited cinemas for like a week so this could create a backlash against it being a "TV movie" and killing cinema distrubution and showing of films on the big screen! For once Best Picture is WIDE open for anyone to win!
Prediction: Roma