GARY'S OSCAR PREDICTIONS 2022
It’s a tight run contest this year with the frontrunner Power of the Dog seeming to be being caught up to and perhaps beaten by underdog CODA at the last minute. The Best Actress category is wide open too plus lots of the other craft and screenplay categories looking like they could go to anyone. It’s probably the most exciting year for any Oscar party with a competitive Oscar ballot betting pool.
Here are Gary’s picks on who he thinks will win and who he wants to win. It’s kind of a mixture of head and heart…you have to choose the ones you are rooting for rather than the consensus sometimes…
Best Picture
Belfast
CODA
Don't Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
GARY’S WINNER: The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
I think CODA will win now, it has momentum and it will be historic for a drama mostly in ASL to win, it’s a feel good film but I just can’t get behind such a plainly made film that, in my opinion, kind of fumbles a few of it’s core moments and is spends such a disproportionate amount of it’s running time dealing with very dull fishing rights struggles , winning the Academy Award for Best Picture. The Godfather it is not. So I am hoping Jane Campion’s Power of the Dog still has legs as it is a quiet masterpiece. Either way we get a film directed by a woman winning two years in a row.
Best Director
Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
Steven Spielberg, West Side Story
This is a sure thing. Second female director win in a row, a crowning of her long and trailblazing career.
Best Actress in a Leading Role
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Olivia Colman, The Lost Daughter
Penélope Cruz, Parallel Mothers
Nicole Kidman, Being the Ricardos
Kristen Stewart, Spencer
Ugh…so difficult. It could be anyone. There’s a bit of me that thinks Colman is gonna come from nowhere, some people think Penelope Cruz is gonna snag it but Jessica Chastain is well liked and won the SAG so I’m going for her.
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Javier Bardem, Being the Ricardos
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog
Andrew Garfield, Tick, Tick... Boom!
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Will Smith, King Richard
Denzel Washington, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Jessie Buckley, The Lost Daughter
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Ariana DeBose, West Side Story
Judi Dench, Belfast
Kirsten Dunst, The Power of the Dog
Aunjanue Ellis, King Richard
This will be West Side Story’s only win I reckon, unless Aunjanue Ellis sneaks up and takes it from the frontrunner. This category always likes to anoint a new star so I think Ariana has it.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Ciarán Hinds, Belfast
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Troy Kotsur, CODA
Jesse Plemons, The Power of the Dog
J.K. Simmons, Being the Ricardos
Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Screenplay
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Kenneth Branagh, Belfast
Adam McKay and David Sirota, Don't Look Up
Zach Baylin, King Richard
Paul Thomas Anderson, Licorice Pizza
Eskil Vogt and Joachim Trier, The Worst Person in the World
I just don’t think people are going to give this to PTA. I know this would be his first Oscar and he is nominated in other areas but I feel like this is gonna be the tick box that people recognise Belfast in. It could be anyone. It could even be Don’t Look Up which would be crazy as it’s one of the worst films ever made.
Best Adapted Screenplay
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Siân Heder, CODA
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe, Drive My Car
Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve, and Eric Roth, Dune
Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Lost Daughter
Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog
This is where Sian Heder the writer director of CODA will win.
Best Cinematography
Greg Fraser, Dune
Dan Lausten, Nightmare Alley
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Ari Wegner, The Power of the Dog
Bruno Delbonnel, The Tragedy of Macbeth
Janusz Kaminski, West Side Story
The first ever female cinematography win? It has to be! It’s either Ari or Greg Fraser for the gorgeous Dune.
Best Film Editing
Hank Corwin, Don't Look Up
Joe Walker, Dune
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Pamela Martin, King Richard
Peter Sciberras, The Power of the Dog
Myron Kerstein and Andrew Weisblum, Tick, Tick... Boom!
Those tennis sequences just scream “best/most editing” and I have to root for the seventh female win in the category in the 94 years of the Oscars.
Best Animated Feature Film
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells vs. The Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
I did not like Encanto, Luca was the best animated film of the year but everyone’s kids loves this film, it’s a phenomenon so it’s gonna win.
Best Animated Short Film
Affairs of the Art
Bestia
Boxballet
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Robin Robin
The Windshield Wiper
Best Live-Action Short Film
Ala Kachuu — Take and Run
The Dress
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: The Long Goodbye
On My Mind
Please Hold
Riz Ahmed has the star power to push this through to a win.
Best International Feature Film
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Drive My Car (Japan)
Flee (Denmark)
The Hand of God (Italy)
Lunana: A Yak in the Classroom (Bhutan)
The Worst Person in the World (Norway)
Best Documentary Feature
Ascension
Attica
Flee
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Summer of Soul
Writing with Fire
Best Documentary Short Subject
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Audible
Lead Me Home
The Queen of Basketball
Three Songs for Benazir
When We Were Bullies
Best Original Score
Nicholas Britell, Don't Look Up
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Hans Zimmer, Dune
Germaine Franco, Encanto
Alberto Iglesias, Parallel Mothers
Jonny Greenwood, The Power of the Dog
Best Original Song
"Be Alive" from King Richard — Music and Lyric by DIXSON and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter
"Dos Oruguitas" from Encanto — Music and Lyric by Lin-Manuel Miranda
"Down to Joy" from Belfast — Music and Lyric by Van Morrison
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: "No Time to Die" from No Time to Die — Music and Lyric by Billie Eilish and Finneas O'Connell
"Somehow You Do" from Four Good Days — Music and Lyric by Diane Warren
Best Sound
Denise Yarde, Simon Chase, James Mather, and Niv Adiri, Belfast
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Mac Ruth, Mark Mangini, Theo Green, Doug Hemphill, and Ron Bartlett, Dune
Simon Hayes, Oliver Tarney, James Harrison, Paul Massey, and Mark Taylor, No Time to Die
Richard Flynn, Robert Mackenzie, and Tara Webb, The Power of the Dog
Tod A. Maitland, Gary Rydstrom, Brian Chumney, Andy Nelson, and Shawn Murphy, West Side Story
Best Costume Design
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Jenny Beavan, Cruella
Massimo Cantini Parrini and Jacqueline Durran, Cyrano
Jacqueline West and Robert Morgan, Dune
Luis Sequeira, Nightmare Alley
Paul Tazewell, West Side Story
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mike Marino, Stacey Morris and Carla Farmer, Coming 2 America
Nadia Stacey, Naomi Donne and Julia Vernon, Cruella
Donald Mowat, Love Larson and Eva von Bahr, Dune
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Linda Dowds, Stephanie Ingram and Justin Raleigh, The Eyes of Tammy Faye
Göran Lundström, Anna Carin Lock and Frederic Aspiras, House of Gucci
Best Production Design
Dune — Production Design: Patrice Vermette; Set Decoration: Zsuzsanna Sipos
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Nightmare Alley — Production Design: Tamara Deverell; Set Decoration: Shane Vieau
The Power of the Dog — Production Design: Grant Major; Set Decoration: Amber Richards
The Tragedy of Macbeth — Production Design: Stefan Dechant; Set Decoration: Nancy Haigh
West Side Story — Production Design: Adam Stockhausen; Set Decoration: Rena DeAngelo
Best Visual Effects
GARY’S PROJECTED WINNER: Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, Brian Connor, and Gerd Nefzer, Dune
Swen Gillberg, Bryan Grill, Nikos Kalaitzidis, and Dan Sudick, Free Guy
Charlie Noble, Joel Green, Jonathan Fawkner, and Chris Corbould, No Time to Die
Christopher Townsend, Joe Farrell, Sean Noel Walker, and Dan Oliver, Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
Kelly Port, Chris Waegner, Scott Edelstein, and Dan Sudick, Spider-Man: No Way Home